Will Critical Minerals Stop the Energy Transition

# Critical Minerals: The Achilles Heel of the Energy Transition?

## Introduction

The term "critical minerals" has been thrown around frequently in recent discussions about the energy transition. These minerals are essential for the technologies needed to combat climate change, such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. However, their supply is often at risk of disruption, making them a potential bottleneck in achieving a net-zero emissions economy.

## What Are Critical Minerals?

Critical minerals are defined as those that are essential to a nation's economic and strategic interests but are at risk of supply disruptions. The identification of critical minerals depends on global technology needs, advanced manufacturing, defense, and most importantly, emissions reduction technologies. These minerals include lithium, cobalt, rare earths, tungsten, alumina, and graphite.

## Challenges in Supply

The transition to clean energy requires an unprecedented scale-up of mineral extraction and processing. For instance, the demand for lithium is projected to grow significantly as electric vehicles and battery storage systems become more widespread. However, lithium's processing is highly concentrated, with China handling nearly 60% of global production.

Cobalt is another critical mineral facing challenges. Most of the world's cobalt supply comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where mining practices have been criticized for human rights abuses, including child labor. Despite these issues, cobalt is essential for many lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles.

Rare earth elements are also a key focus. These 17 chemical elements are crucial for advanced technologies like wind turbines and electric vehicle motors. However, their extraction and processing are often environmentally hazardous due to the presence of radioactive elements like thorium and uranium.

## Supply Chain Centralization

The production of critical minerals is highly centralized, with certain countries dominating global supply chains. For example, China controls 90% of rare earth element refining, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo supplies 70% of cobalt. This concentration poses significant risks to global energy transition efforts, as any disruptions in these regions could severely impact clean energy development.

## Efforts to Secure Supply Chains

To address these challenges, countries are taking steps to diversify and secure their critical mineral supply chains. The U.S. has introduced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which includes provisions to reduce reliance on foreign imports and incentivize domestic production through tax credits. Similarly, the EU has launched initiatives like the European Critical Raw Materials Act and the European Battery Alliance.

## Conclusion

The energy transition hinges on our ability to address critical mineral challenges. While technological advancements and new processing methods offer hope, it is crucial to ensure that these efforts are socially and environmentally responsible. As Rosie Barnes emphasizes, the goal is not to predict shortages but to identify bottlenecks early and develop strategies to mitigate them. By fostering innovation, diversifying supply chains, and promoting ethical mining practices, we can pave the way for a successful energy transition.

"WEBVTTKind: captionsLanguage: enAre critical minerals the Achillesheel of the energy transition?Climate change deniers will tell you thata zero emissions economy is a pipe dream.They say there's not enough lithiumfor allthe batteries we’ll need, that mining rareearths is destroying the environmentand that we can't get cobaltwithout sending children down mines.So is the energy transition doomedbefore it even begins?Welcome to the lava plainsin north east Queensland.I'm here for a few days for work,taking a look at some of the resourcesof minerals processing company Lava Blue.I thought this was a great opportunityto make a video about critical minerals.We're going to explorethe challenges and opportunitiesassociated with these minerals,and we'll ask the tough questionsthat will need answersif we're going to pulloff the energy transitionI’m Rosie Barnesan engineer with 20 years experienceworking with clean energy technologies.Welcome to Engineering with RosieThe term critical mineralsis bandied around a lot these days.It should be used to describe mineralsthat are both essential to anation'seconomic and strategic interestsand at risk of supply disruptions.Basically, you need itand it might become hard to get.Identifying need is usually basedon global technologyneeds, such as for advanced manufacturingand defense, and most importantly,for emissions reduction technologies.Because our plans for the energytransition require us to moveso much faster than these sorts of thingstend to naturally develop.A lot of the stuff that we need for thathas not been used in much volume before.So there isn't a lot around yet.We're going to need different kindsof minerals and more overall to buildthe solar panels, wind turbinesand electric vehicles and battery storage.We need to get to net zero and expansionof the electricity grids to enable that.So that all sounds very simple,but when you look at differentpublished lists of critical minerals,they aren't all the same.Why can't anyone seem to agreeon what counts as critical minerals?You need it, and it might become hardto get is a simple phrasethat hides a lot of ambiguity.Do we really need itor could it be substituted?We used to think we needed cobaltto make lithiumion batteries until lithium ionphosphate batteries got commercialized.They don't use any cobalt.And then the second partit might become hard to get.That can befor a couple of different reasons.It might be scarceor at least scarce in your country, orit might be abundant, but hard to extractand process to a usable form.Lithium is an exampleof an abundant elementthat has traditionally been hardto process from most sources.So you can see that what countsas a critical mineral is subjective,depending on who is making the decisionand where they are making it.It also depends on when as new processingmethods are being developedall the timeand substitutes can often be found.And new electricity generation and storagetechnologies are always emerging.There have always been critical minerals,of course, things that we've neededand had trouble sourcing.For example, in 1924, a copper expertwarned the age of electricityand of copper will be short. At the intenserate of production that must come.the copper supply of the worldwill last hardly a score of years.Our civilization, based onelectrical power, will dwindle and die.In reality,the annual production increased nearly 20fold in the hundred years sincehe said that. In 100 years.Do you think that we will look backand think of all this talk of today'scritical minerals was stupid.let's dig a bit deeper.There are dozens of critical minerals,so I won't go through them all just now.I'll just cover the fewthat are the topic of most contentionrecently: lithium, cobalt and rare earths.But each of these will talkabout what they're used forand why they're eitherhard to find or hard to make, or both.I do plan to do whole videoson the most important critical mineralslaid out, So I'll save the deep detailfor those videos.If you've got specific questions,then please head to the comment sectionto tell me.That really helps me out so that I knowwhat exactly to cover in upcoming videos.Let's start with lithium.Probably the one that gets talkedabout the most, including on this channel.You can check out my video with AlexGrant here.Lithium is interestingbecause it's a key component of lithiumion batteries for use in electric vehiclesand stationary storage.But before these technologies,the main use was in medicine.Sometime aroundthe turn of the millennium,batteries took over as the main useoriginally in electronics like mobilephones and mp3 players.Batteries take up about 70% of globallithium these days, and now it'smostly EVs. And that is expectedto continue to grow strongly.There are currently few substitutesfor lithiumthat can perform to the same standardsin batteries, though emerging technologiessuch as sodium ion are likely to be readyto replace some of the lessdemanding battery applicationswithin the next few years.Lithium is not particularly scarce,but it's typically foundin low concentrationsthat are uneconomic to extract.Half of the world's lithium extractioncomes from Australia, currently,with Chile adding another 20%.And its processingis even more concentrated,with China processing nearly60% of the world's lithium and Chile againin second place at nearly 30%.economically viable sources of lithiuminclude lithium rich brines like thosein the salt flats of South Americaand hard rock minerals like spodumene.But the spike in demand and possiblespike in prices has made an incentiveto get creativewith new sources and new processesto take it from rock or seawater even,and turn it into battery gradelithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide.Next, let's move on to rare earthslike the termcritical minerals, the term rare earthshas become a bit of a buzz word lately.while the minerals that belongin the critical category differdepending on who's categorizing.same isn't true for rare earths,which have a specific definition.It's a common mistake and a petpeeve of mine that people use bothcritical minerals and rare earth elementsas a synonym just for anything important.It's a little bit wrongfor critical minerals,and it's a lot wrong for rare earths,which are a group of precisely 17chemical elements in the periodic table.Specifically,the 15 lanthanides adds plus Scandiumand Ytriumthey have unique electronic, opticaland magnetic properties that are prized invarious advanced technologies,including electric motors and generators.despite their name, they're relatively abundantin Earth's crust, butare often difficult to mine and extracteconomically due to their dispersion.And there are also often environmentallyhazardous processes involved.The main energy transition technologiesthat rely on rare earths,wind turbines and electric vehicles.That's because rare earthsallow the creationof extremely powerful permanent magnets.These magnets are significantly strongerthan those madefrom more conventional materials,which means that they can be smallerand lighterwhile still providing the necessarymagnetic field strength.They are used in permanent magnetsfor direct drive generators in windturbines,enhancing efficiency and reliabilitybecause these systems requireno gearboxes.You mostly see them in offshore turbineswhere reliabilityis key because it's so difficultto get maintenance crews out there.Electric motors in EVs often userare earths in their permanent magnets.These improve EV performancebecause they're lighter and oftenmore efficient than induction motorsthat don't use rare earthsIn either case,you don't need the rare earths.It's certainly nice to have lighter,more compact motors or generators,but it comes at a cost.Most wind turbines with gearboxesdon't use rare earths and Teslawill eliminate them in its next generationvehicles.You might have been surprisedto not see batteries on this list of rareearth using technologies.Lithiumion batteries don't use rare earths,And if you thought they did, it's likelybecause of the tendency of some peopleto describe any important mineralas a rare earth.Some older battery chemistrieslike nickel metal hydride did,but as a rule, not lithium ion or sodiumion for that matter,rare earthminerals are often found in igneous rocks,which are rocksthat have formed from the coolingand solidification of molten magma.I'm recording this videoin the lava plains,which is just what it sounds like,a regionthat has had a lot of volcanic activityin the past.And rare earths are one of the expectationsfor this site.Rare earth minerals are often foundin association with other elementssuch as Thorium,Uranium, Zirconium and Niobium.This is because rare earth elementshave similar chemical propertiesto these other elements, and that can tendto make them hard to separate out.And you might have noticedthat some of those elements, specificallyThorium and Uranium, are radioactive.That adds a whole other layer of headachesyou're not very careful to avoid it.These radioactive elementswill be released into the environmentduring mining and processing,and they can also be concentratedin the waste productsof rare earth processing.This has led to real environmentaland human health problemsin the regions that mine and processrare earths in China.Finally, we get to cobalt,possibly the most controversialof the critical minerals. Like lithium,It's on the critical listbecause it's in batteries,but before it's use in batteries.The main use of cobaltwas as a blue pigment in glass glazesand ceramics, plus industrial applicationslike tool steels, magnets and catalysts.Today is critical because it is a keycomponent in batteries.Cobalt is used in the cathodeof many lithium ion batteriesbecause it enables a high energy densityand a long cycle life.it's usually found alongsidenickel and copper in various ores,and it isn't usually mined by itself.After mining,the ore needs to be crushed, melted downand treated with chemicalsto extract the cobalt.Environmentally,cobalt mining can be disruptive, leadingto deforestation, water pollutionand harming ecosystems.It's also energy intensive,which these days still meanssignificant greenhouse gas emissions.But the main controversy surroundingCobalt is due to the social impact.Much of the world's Cobalt comesfrom the Democratic Republic of the Congo,where the mining practiceshave been under scrutiny,especially in so-called artisanal mines.Issues range from unsafe workingconditions to outright exploitation,including child labor and unfair wages.These serious concernshave led to calls for companies to ensurethat their cobalt sources are ethical,pushing for practices that respect humanrights and the environment.As I mentioned at the start of this video,there are already new batterychemistries that have been developedthat don't use cobalt.And I expect that the extentto which cobalt containingbatteries are used in the futurewill be closely tied to our abilityto extract and process cobaltin socially and environmentally responsible ways.There are a few other critical mineralsin this regionthat I want to quickly mention.Tungsten, known for its high melting pointand durability, is used inelectronic components, high temperatureapplications and solar thermal energyand as a material in wind turbinesand nuclear power infrastructure.Alumina in this clay here,which the company that I'm herewith, Lava Blue, is processing into.99.999% pure alumina a.k.a.high purity alumina HPA. That's used in LEDlighting and sapphire glasson your phone or smartwatch and alsoincreasingly in battery separatorsand to round it out,there are a few important criticalminerals that aren't found in this region.Graphite is probably the main one.It's used in the anode of lithiumion batteries.For all of these examples,there are actually plenty of resourcesavailable,including the one that I'm standing onright now.However, speed is a big issue.We don't really have time to waitfor the normal processes to play outwhere a new use causes increased demandand then supply shortagesand then high prices.High prices make developerskeen to bring new mines on.Supply goes up and pricescome back down again.Unfortunately, in this case,the time frames don't line up,we are trying to rapidlyexpand technologieslike batteries, electric motors,generators and transmission lines,and that means something in the rangeof six times as much mineral inputsas we use today.But new mines can take 16 years to developand there aren't currently enough new onesin the pipeline to scale clean energytechnologies the way we need toto reach net zero at an appropriate time.The IEA notes, for example,that expected supply from existing minesand projects under constructionis estimatedto meet only half of projectedlithium and cobalt requirements by 2030.So more effort is needed globallyto ensure enough critical minerals.However, that's not the whole story.It's not enoughto have sufficient suppliesif they are concentrated in a few places.I'm talking about supply chain security,the production of key mineralsfor the energy transitionlike lithium, cobalt and rare earthelements is way more centralizedthan oil and natural gas production.Just three countriesdominate more than 75%of global supply, and sometimes it'salmost a one country show.for example,the Democratic Republic of the Congois pretty much the king of Cobaltsupplying 70% of the world's total,while China churned out60% of all rare earth elements.But digging them out of the groundis just half the storywhen it comes to refining these minerals,it's even more concentrated.And here,China is really in a league of its own.They handle a staggering 50to 70% of global Lithium and Cobaltrefining and for rare earth elements,they're practically a monopolywith 90% control.So what's the worry?Well, with all these eggsin just a few baskets, any disruptions,trade issuesor policy changes in these few keycountries could send shockwavesthrough the whole supply chain.One example ofthis is when Indonesia banned processednickel exports in 2020 to encourageinvestment in the local nickel industry.Another example is a recent coup in Gabon,which had a significant impacton global manganese supply chains.And of course, with 90% of rare earthscoming out of China, plus a hefty majorityof many other critical minerals,they have the ability to massively disruptthe clean energy plansof pretty much the whole world.In a recent example of that powerin reaction to the US introducing rules,trying to stop Chinafrom getting or manufacturing chipsand components for super computers, ChinaThis caused the price to increaseby more than 50%.And of course, you can easilyimagine the effects of that kind of powerplay applied in a more widespread manner.It's obviously not a super secure strategyto allow another countryto have so much powerover your own country's destiny.Everyone is worriedabout these sorts of issues now.The US has the InflationReduction Act, IRA,which includes a number of provisionsthat are aimed at reducingthe US's relianceon foreign imports of critical minerals.and includes very generoustax credits for domestic productionand processing of critical mineralsinternational partnerships aimed at friendshoring, critical mineralsand funding for research and developmentin related areas.the EU has also adopteda number of initiatives,including the European Critical rawmaterials Act,the European Battery Allianceand the European Green Deal.And other major economies are also workinghard to secure their critical mineralssupply chains by onshoring, friend shoring and diversifying.For a country like Australia,this is a huge opportunity.We have all these minerals.We're already miningmost of them at scale.Currently we send the majorityoffshore for processingand for some reason we also spendthe majority of the profits offshore too,because our mines are 86% foreign owned.This should be the perfect timeto change that and keep the value here.Since the mining part of the supplychain will be slow to change,we are in an enviable position to movejust a little bit along the value chainand begin to processmore of the stuff that we dig up.It makes sense to focus immediate effortson adding processing to existing minesrather than sending everything to China,as that's something that will fill the gapexpected in the next decade beforeany new resource discoveries made todaywill have had a chance to come online.So that was a short taste of the issuessurrounding critical mineralsrelated to the energy transition.I used an example at the startabout an old prediction about copperthat it's going to run out and we wouldn'tbe able to have electricity anymore,and I wondered whether we'd be sayingthe same thing about the mineralsthat I've mentioned in this video.The fact is that the point of identifyinglists of critical mineralsisn't to predict the future, to be ableto look back and say, I told you so.It's to identify bottlenecks ahead of timeso that we can either bring more supplyon line in time or have time to developalternative technologiesthat don't rely on problematic supplychains.The company I'm working for, LavaBlue, is one of a number of new companiestaking on the challenge of the formerlooking for sources of important mineralsand developing new processing methods.Tesla is a good example of the latter.They've diverted a lot of their carsto use cobalt free LFP battery chemistry,and they're also developingrare earth free motors that don't compromisetoo much on performance.I'm going to be working a loton critical mineralsand mining and processing in the future,and as much as possible,I want to get on site to real projectsto be able to show you whatthat's actually like.If you're a mining or processing companywith an interesting project,you can let me film.Please get in touch.I'd love to make a video about it.Thanks to the Engineering with Rosie,Patreon teamfor supporting this channel.If you'd like to joinus, we'd love to welcome you.And there's a link in the description.Thanks for watching. Don'tforget to leave comments and questionsfor future videos in the comments.I'll see you in the next video.\n"