'We dodged the bullet' | N.O. NWS Meteorologist: Hurricane Sally will have 'minor effects' on SELA

A Conversation with Ben Shotti, Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service Office in Slidel

We're here outside the National Weather Service Office in Slidel, Louisiana, with Ben Shotti, meteorologist in charge for all of Southeast Louisiana. Let's take a look at where we were 48 hours ago compared to where we are now. It looks like only a tiny sliver of Southeast Louisiana is still in the cone.

We've had a drastic change in the way that Sally is tracking across the Gulf, and for the betterment of this area, the unfortunate result will be over in Alabama and Mississippi. However, for us here in Southeast Louisiana, there will be minor impacts over just a very small area. Is it possible that the storm could track back West a little bit or is that unlikely at this point? Most of the modeling we see right now is showing an easterly turn, but I'll still say that if you're in St. Tammany Parish or St. Bernard Parish, you may want to keep an eye on this just in case there's a little bit of wobble to the West. This type of behavior is not uncommon with storms continuing to intensify like Sally.

The real problem with this storm isn't how fast it's moving, although that is frustrating for everyone involved. Storms usually move at 10-15 miles per hour or more, and they're out of the area in a day. This one, however, is going to be dealing with us floating around the northern Gulf roughly for the next 36-48 hours. I believe that's what causes the most problematic water effects: the amount of rain being dumped down wherever it falls could be an excess of 2 feet, leading to immense flooding on top of areas close to the coast. The combination of both flooding and surge could be devastating, definitely life-threatening.

The slow-moving storm also helps with the storm surge. When a storm slows down like this one is doing, it's able to really build up that water, then work its way inland once it comes ashore. We're still working on determining the timing for when it will be in and when it will be out of our area.

Looking at Shell Beach or other gauges along the northern coast right now, we can see a rise due to high tide this afternoon. There's also actually surge starting to creep up as we speak, which is not unusual with storms just to the South now. When thinking about the winds wrapping around the circulation, it's pushing water from south to north on shore. This will continue over the next 36-48 hours until the storm gets well inland and then we'll see the flow return and push the water back out.

When considering the real problematic rain, I understand that it falls on the Eastern side of the storm, which puts Southeast Louisiana on the Western side of the storm. We're in a better position, but there may still be some bands coming in as the storm approaches the mouth before making its full turn to the north and east. This means we won't be completely dry tomorrow, though we'll see some rainfall that wasn't projected just a couple of days ago when the track was west of the mouth. Unfortunately, those areas affected by Mississippi and Alabama will still measure rainfall over the next couple of days.

We certainly feel for all those people in our area.