A Conversation with Ben Shotti, Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service Office in Slidel

We're here outside the National Weather Service Office in Slidel, Louisiana, with Ben Shotti, meteorologist in charge for all of Southeast Louisiana. Let's take a look at where we were 48 hours ago compared to where we are now. It looks like only a tiny sliver of Southeast Louisiana is still in the cone.

We've had a drastic change in the way that Sally is tracking across the Gulf, and for the betterment of this area, the unfortunate result will be over in Alabama and Mississippi. However, for us here in Southeast Louisiana, there will be minor impacts over just a very small area. Is it possible that the storm could track back West a little bit or is that unlikely at this point? Most of the modeling we see right now is showing an easterly turn, but I'll still say that if you're in St. Tammany Parish or St. Bernard Parish, you may want to keep an eye on this just in case there's a little bit of wobble to the West. This type of behavior is not uncommon with storms continuing to intensify like Sally.

The real problem with this storm isn't how fast it's moving, although that is frustrating for everyone involved. Storms usually move at 10-15 miles per hour or more, and they're out of the area in a day. This one, however, is going to be dealing with us floating around the northern Gulf roughly for the next 36-48 hours. I believe that's what causes the most problematic water effects: the amount of rain being dumped down wherever it falls could be an excess of 2 feet, leading to immense flooding on top of areas close to the coast. The combination of both flooding and surge could be devastating, definitely life-threatening.

The slow-moving storm also helps with the storm surge. When a storm slows down like this one is doing, it's able to really build up that water, then work its way inland once it comes ashore. We're still working on determining the timing for when it will be in and when it will be out of our area.

Looking at Shell Beach or other gauges along the northern coast right now, we can see a rise due to high tide this afternoon. There's also actually surge starting to creep up as we speak, which is not unusual with storms just to the South now. When thinking about the winds wrapping around the circulation, it's pushing water from south to north on shore. This will continue over the next 36-48 hours until the storm gets well inland and then we'll see the flow return and push the water back out.

When considering the real problematic rain, I understand that it falls on the Eastern side of the storm, which puts Southeast Louisiana on the Western side of the storm. We're in a better position, but there may still be some bands coming in as the storm approaches the mouth before making its full turn to the north and east. This means we won't be completely dry tomorrow, though we'll see some rainfall that wasn't projected just a couple of days ago when the track was west of the mouth. Unfortunately, those areas affected by Mississippi and Alabama will still measure rainfall over the next couple of days.

We certainly feel for all those people in our area.

"WEBVTTKind: captionsLanguage: enall right we're here outside the National Weather Service Office in Slidel with Ben shotti a meteorologist in charge and for all of Southeast Louisiana comparing 48 hours ago to where we were uh in the cone to where we are now it's now correct me if I'm wrong only a tiny sliver of Southeast Louisiana in the cone correct yeah it is uh we've had a drastic change in the way that Sally is uh tracking across the golf and now uh for the betterment of this area uh the unfortunate uh you know result will will be over in Alabama and Mississippi but for us here in Southeast Louisiana uh there'll be minor impacts over just a very small area is it possible that the storm could track back West a little bit or is that unlikely at this point it's pretty unlikely uh you know most of the uh modeling that we see right now is showing that uh easterly turn uh you know I will still say that though if you are uh in St tamam Parish or St Bernard Parish uh you may want to obviously keep an eye on this just in case that uh there is a little bit of wobble to the West which a lot of these storms can do when they are continuing to intensify which Sally is but a major jog to the West you would say is unlikely correct very unlikely at this point um is the real problem with this storm how slow moving it is and I'm guessing that's that's what's so frustrating you just want to get it up and get it over with right yeah that I mean you usually times when you have storms moving across the gulf they're moving at 10 15 miles per hour or more and so uh you get them uh to come through in a day and and they're out of the area uh this is one that we're going to be dealing with floating around the northern Gulf roughly for the next 36 to 48 hours and I'm guessing that is what causes the most problematic water effects just the the amount of rain being dumped right yeah wherever uh the heaviest amount Falls which could be an excess of 2 feet uh the amount of flooding is going to be immense uh on top of if it's close to the coast as well uh you're going to have the surge so those two things impacting an area could be devastating uh definitely life-threatening uh the other thing with the slow moving storm uh that also helps with the storm surge so when a storm slows down like this one is doing uh it's able to really build up that water and then work its way Inland once it does come on Shore do you know storm surge timing yet when it will be in and then more importantly when it'll be back out yeah I mean the interesting thing is it's happening right now uh if you look at Shell Beach or other gauges anywhere along the northern coast uh right now of the gulf you will see that rise now some of that is attributed to the high tie that we saw this afternoon but there there is actually surge starting to creep up as we speak and that's not unusual with the storm that's just to the South now so if you think about the winds uh wrapping around uh the circulation there it's pushing uh you know from the south to the north on Shore so that'll continue on over the course of the next 36 48 hours until it gets well Inland and then you'll see the flow return and push the water back out now and going back to the rain all of the real problematic rain if I understand it correctly is on the Eastern side of the storm so Southeast Louisiana on the western side of the storm um we're on the much better side correct yeah that that's definitely correct uh you know there will be still some bands that may come in as it does approach a little bit closer to the mouth before it makes that full turn to the north and to the east so there maybe still some rain tomorrow so it's not like we're going to be completely dry but the rainfall amounts that we were projecting uh just a couple of days ago when the track was west of the mouth we're just not going to realize those and folks in Mississippi and Alabama uh those those are the ones that maybe measuring rainfall and feed over the course of the next couple of days yeah and we certainly feel for all those people that's been shot as meteorologist in charge here at the National Weather Service Office in sidel let's send it back to you guysall right we're here outside the National Weather Service Office in Slidel with Ben shotti a meteorologist in charge and for all of Southeast Louisiana comparing 48 hours ago to where we were uh in the cone to where we are now it's now correct me if I'm wrong only a tiny sliver of Southeast Louisiana in the cone correct yeah it is uh we've had a drastic change in the way that Sally is uh tracking across the golf and now uh for the betterment of this area uh the unfortunate uh you know result will will be over in Alabama and Mississippi but for us here in Southeast Louisiana uh there'll be minor impacts over just a very small area is it possible that the storm could track back West a little bit or is that unlikely at this point it's pretty unlikely uh you know most of the uh modeling that we see right now is showing that uh easterly turn uh you know I will still say that though if you are uh in St tamam Parish or St Bernard Parish uh you may want to obviously keep an eye on this just in case that uh there is a little bit of wobble to the West which a lot of these storms can do when they are continuing to intensify which Sally is but a major jog to the West you would say is unlikely correct very unlikely at this point um is the real problem with this storm how slow moving it is and I'm guessing that's that's what's so frustrating you just want to get it up and get it over with right yeah that I mean you usually times when you have storms moving across the gulf they're moving at 10 15 miles per hour or more and so uh you get them uh to come through in a day and and they're out of the area uh this is one that we're going to be dealing with floating around the northern Gulf roughly for the next 36 to 48 hours and I'm guessing that is what causes the most problematic water effects just the the amount of rain being dumped right yeah wherever uh the heaviest amount Falls which could be an excess of 2 feet uh the amount of flooding is going to be immense uh on top of if it's close to the coast as well uh you're going to have the surge so those two things impacting an area could be devastating uh definitely life-threatening uh the other thing with the slow moving storm uh that also helps with the storm surge so when a storm slows down like this one is doing uh it's able to really build up that water and then work its way Inland once it does come on Shore do you know storm surge timing yet when it will be in and then more importantly when it'll be back out yeah I mean the interesting thing is it's happening right now uh if you look at Shell Beach or other gauges anywhere along the northern coast uh right now of the gulf you will see that rise now some of that is attributed to the high tie that we saw this afternoon but there there is actually surge starting to creep up as we speak and that's not unusual with the storm that's just to the South now so if you think about the winds uh wrapping around uh the circulation there it's pushing uh you know from the south to the north on Shore so that'll continue on over the course of the next 36 48 hours until it gets well Inland and then you'll see the flow return and push the water back out now and going back to the rain all of the real problematic rain if I understand it correctly is on the Eastern side of the storm so Southeast Louisiana on the western side of the storm um we're on the much better side correct yeah that that's definitely correct uh you know there will be still some bands that may come in as it does approach a little bit closer to the mouth before it makes that full turn to the north and to the east so there maybe still some rain tomorrow so it's not like we're going to be completely dry but the rainfall amounts that we were projecting uh just a couple of days ago when the track was west of the mouth we're just not going to realize those and folks in Mississippi and Alabama uh those those are the ones that maybe measuring rainfall and feed over the course of the next couple of days yeah and we certainly feel for all those people that's been shot as meteorologist in charge here at the National Weather Service Office in sidel let's send it back to you guys\n"