Moore's Law and Nielsen's Law: The Evolution of Internet Speeds

In the world of internet speeds, there are two laws that have become synonymous with the rapid evolution of technology. Moore's Law, which states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years, has been a guiding principle for the development of computer processors. However, it was Nielsen's Law that caught the attention of ISPs (Internet Service Providers) when they realized that top-end home internet speeds were increasing at a rate of 50% per year. This trend is even more remarkable than Moore's Law, and it has become a benchmark for predicting future internet speed increases.

Nielsen's Law: A More Accurate Predictor

Nielsen's Law states that top-end home internet speeds will increase by 50% each year, which is faster than the doubling rate of Moore's Law. This trend has been observed consistently since the early days of the internet and has become a reliable predictor of future internet speed increases. ISPs have used Nielsen's Law to project what speed tiers they should offer their customers in the future, with many experts predicting that 5Gigabit speeds will be the new norm.

But What About 10Gigabit Speeds?

Despite the predictions of Nielsen's Law, there are already a number of ISPs offering 10Gigabit speeds to their customers. In fact, some Network switches and cables already support 10Gigabit Ethernet, and the newest standards for sending data through cable modems also support this faster speed. So, why don't more ISPs offer 10Gigabit speeds? There are a couple of reasons.

Reasons Behind Limiting Speeds to 5Gigabits

One reason is that ISPs don't want their infrastructure to get overloaded. By limiting the top customer tier to 5Gigabits, they can ensure that capacity remains double that amount, making it easier to handle future increases in demand. Another reason is more related to demand. The average connection these days is around 200Megabits, which seems more than enough for many customers. In fact, even if you're trying to stream multiple 4K videos, those only take around 25Megs per stream, making the 200Megabit plan seem like overkill.

The Role of Upload Speeds

However, when it comes to upload speeds, things are a bit different. The average upload speed for a home connection in the US is less than 20Megabits per second, which is still far from what we need today. With smartphones that can record 4K video and more people working from home due to COVID-19, there's definitely demand for faster upload speeds. In fact, some experts predict that we might see faster upload speeds before we see super-fast download speeds.

Tested Speeds: A Glimpse of the Future

Major ISPs such as Comcast and Spectrum in the US have already successfully tested speeds at or near 10Gigabits. They've done this using a hybrid approach, where fiber carries internet traffic to a node, and then plain old coaxial cable takes over to carry that data to your house at high speed. This technology is still in its infancy, but it offers a glimpse of what's possible in the future.

The Future of Internet Speeds: 802.3ca

To take this even further, there's a new standard called 802.3ca for higher-speed fiber. The idea is to use multiple wavelengths of light, each carrying 25Gigabits per second. By combining four of these wavelengths, you can create a 100Gigabit link, which can then be sorted out with passive splitters to provide home internet connections of 25 or 50Gigabits each.

The Possibility of 16K Resolution

So, what does this mean for the future of internet speeds? With technology like 802.3ca on the horizon, it's possible that we might see even faster speeds in the not-too-distant future. And with the rise of 4K and 8K resolutions, it's only a matter of time before we start talking about internet speeds measured in terabits per second.

In conclusion, the evolution of internet speeds is an ongoing process, driven by technological advancements and shifting demands from consumers. Nielsen's Law has become a reliable predictor of future speed increases, but there are already signs that ISPs are moving towards faster speeds. With technologies like 802.3ca on the horizon, it's possible that we'll see even faster speeds in the not-too-distant future.

A Message from FreshBooks

Before we dive back into the world of internet speeds, we'd like to take a moment to talk about an invoicing and accounting solution that can help you save time and money. FreshBooks is a popular tool that's been used by millions of users worldwide. With its award-winning support and user-friendly interface, it's no wonder why so many businesses have turned to FreshBooks for their financial needs.

By using FreshBooks, you'll be able to streamline your invoicing process, track your expenses, and get more time to focus on growing your business. Whether you're a freelancer or a small business owner, FreshBooks is the perfect solution for anyone looking to simplify their finances.

"WEBVTTKind: captionsLanguage: en10 years ago having a 20 megabit internet connection was pretty darn solid but these days it seems like 200 megabits or 10 times faster is on the low end of what many isps offer and there's no sign of stopping so considering how quickly both speeds and demand have risen lately how fast could our internet be in just a few years time let's Ponder our orbs shall we oh my so have you heard of Moore's law that famous observation that CPUs would have twice as many transistors every two years there's actually a similar law called Nielsen's law that says top-end home internet speeds get 50 faster each year and this trend is held up very well since the internet first started gaining popularity better than Moore's law in fact interestingly isps even used Nielsen's law to project what speed tiers they should aim to offer customers in the future and right now it looks like five gigabit could be the next big thing but hold on a second there are plenty of 10 gigabit devices out there right now you can go out and buy Network switches and cables that support 10 gigabit Ethernet and the newest standards for sending data through a cable modem also support 10 gig so why are we talking about speeds leveling off at only five gigs while there are a very small number of isps that do offer 10 gigabit internet most of them don't have anything near that fast for a couple of reasons one is that they don't want the underlying Tech to get over overloaded so they try to make sure capacity is double the top customer tier so if the infrastructure actually supports 10 gig a major ISP might only offer 5 gig as its high-end option but there's one other big reason the isps want to keep things at five gigabit and we'll tell you what it is right after a short message from freshbooks the invoicing and accounting Solution that's built for owners and clients freshbooks users save a ton of time and money we're talking 11 hours a week that they used to spend sorting through invoices and financials plus 94 of freshbooks users say it's super easy to get up and running and with award-winning support you're never alone switch to freshbooks today and join over 24 million people who have used it and loved it so to try freshbooks free for 30 days no credit card required go to freshbooks.com techwiki and get started today so the other big reason speeds May level off at 5 gigabits in the near future is simply demand you see the average connection these days is somewhere around 200 megabits and even if you're trying to stream multiple 4K videos those only take around 25 Megs per Stream So the average 200 megabit plan seems to be more than enough for many customers limiting the number of paying customers screaming for a multi-gig connection and when people do experience slowdowns on a 200 Meg connection it's very often a result of say putting their wireless router in a silly location rather than the pipe not being fat enough even though it's hard to think of a pipe that's too fat but what about upload speeds which are still on average less than 20 megabits a second for a Home Connection in the US with smartphones that record 4K video increasing numbers of people that work from home and three iot devices for every person on Earth by 2025 there's definitely demand for a larger Upstream pipe so we might see this before we see super gaudy download speeds I'd still expect to see 5 gigabit download speeds being offered sometime around 2024 if Nielsen's law holds up especially as multiple 4K HDR streams large game downloads and video chat chats are becoming more common and eat through bandwidth quickly major isps such as Comcast and Spectrum in the United States have already successfully tested speeds at or near 10 gigabit and it can all be done over existing cabling using a hybrid approach where fiber carries internet traffic to a node at which point plain old coaxial cable takes over and Carries that data to your house at high speed but how can we go even faster in the future if most equipment currently has a 10 gig maximum well there's a new standard called 802.3 ca for higher speed fiber the idea is to use multiple wavelengths of light each one carrying 25 gigabits per second you could combine say four of them for a 100 gigabit link and then sort them out with passive Splitters to provide home internet connections of 25 or 50 gigabits each that's still a little ways off but for those of you who want to watch techwiki in 16k sure it can arrive soon enough can you imagine you can see my pores hey thanks for watching this video guys like it if you like it dislike it if you dislike it and check out our other videos comment below with video suggestions and don't forget to subscribe and follow it to make sure you're the first to see those 16k Tech cookies10 years ago having a 20 megabit internet connection was pretty darn solid but these days it seems like 200 megabits or 10 times faster is on the low end of what many isps offer and there's no sign of stopping so considering how quickly both speeds and demand have risen lately how fast could our internet be in just a few years time let's Ponder our orbs shall we oh my so have you heard of Moore's law that famous observation that CPUs would have twice as many transistors every two years there's actually a similar law called Nielsen's law that says top-end home internet speeds get 50 faster each year and this trend is held up very well since the internet first started gaining popularity better than Moore's law in fact interestingly isps even used Nielsen's law to project what speed tiers they should aim to offer customers in the future and right now it looks like five gigabit could be the next big thing but hold on a second there are plenty of 10 gigabit devices out there right now you can go out and buy Network switches and cables that support 10 gigabit Ethernet and the newest standards for sending data through a cable modem also support 10 gig so why are we talking about speeds leveling off at only five gigs while there are a very small number of isps that do offer 10 gigabit internet most of them don't have anything near that fast for a couple of reasons one is that they don't want the underlying Tech to get over overloaded so they try to make sure capacity is double the top customer tier so if the infrastructure actually supports 10 gig a major ISP might only offer 5 gig as its high-end option but there's one other big reason the isps want to keep things at five gigabit and we'll tell you what it is right after a short message from freshbooks the invoicing and accounting Solution that's built for owners and clients freshbooks users save a ton of time and money we're talking 11 hours a week that they used to spend sorting through invoices and financials plus 94 of freshbooks users say it's super easy to get up and running and with award-winning support you're never alone switch to freshbooks today and join over 24 million people who have used it and loved it so to try freshbooks free for 30 days no credit card required go to freshbooks.com techwiki and get started today so the other big reason speeds May level off at 5 gigabits in the near future is simply demand you see the average connection these days is somewhere around 200 megabits and even if you're trying to stream multiple 4K videos those only take around 25 Megs per Stream So the average 200 megabit plan seems to be more than enough for many customers limiting the number of paying customers screaming for a multi-gig connection and when people do experience slowdowns on a 200 Meg connection it's very often a result of say putting their wireless router in a silly location rather than the pipe not being fat enough even though it's hard to think of a pipe that's too fat but what about upload speeds which are still on average less than 20 megabits a second for a Home Connection in the US with smartphones that record 4K video increasing numbers of people that work from home and three iot devices for every person on Earth by 2025 there's definitely demand for a larger Upstream pipe so we might see this before we see super gaudy download speeds I'd still expect to see 5 gigabit download speeds being offered sometime around 2024 if Nielsen's law holds up especially as multiple 4K HDR streams large game downloads and video chat chats are becoming more common and eat through bandwidth quickly major isps such as Comcast and Spectrum in the United States have already successfully tested speeds at or near 10 gigabit and it can all be done over existing cabling using a hybrid approach where fiber carries internet traffic to a node at which point plain old coaxial cable takes over and Carries that data to your house at high speed but how can we go even faster in the future if most equipment currently has a 10 gig maximum well there's a new standard called 802.3 ca for higher speed fiber the idea is to use multiple wavelengths of light each one carrying 25 gigabits per second you could combine say four of them for a 100 gigabit link and then sort them out with passive Splitters to provide home internet connections of 25 or 50 gigabits each that's still a little ways off but for those of you who want to watch techwiki in 16k sure it can arrive soon enough can you imagine you can see my pores hey thanks for watching this video guys like it if you like it dislike it if you dislike it and check out our other videos comment below with video suggestions and don't forget to subscribe and follow it to make sure you're the first to see those 16k Tech cookies\n"