The Simulation Hypothesis: A Mind-Bending Theory of Reality

We are living in a simulation? It's a question that has sparked debate and curiosity among philosophers, scientists, and science fiction enthusiasts alike. Today, we'll explore Nick Bostrom's theory on this mind-bending topic.

Imagine a future where enormous amounts of computing power will be available, and with it, the possibility of running detailed simulations of our ancestors or people like them. In this scenario, advanced descendants of an original race might use their super-powerful computers to run such simulations. But what if these simulated people are conscious? It could lead to a fascinating paradox: if we don't think we're living in a computer simulation, we're not entitled to believe that our descendants will run lots of such simulations of their ancestors.

Let's take a step back and examine the birth of a civilization. According to Bostrom's theory, it was in Year 1, marking the beginning of human history. Over time, they reached technological maturity by Year 14050, which allowed them to approach the next level – simulating all of their years and ancestors prior to that year. We can now imagine the runtime of the simulation, with our current era being like a specific spot around 2022.

Now, let's dive deeper into Bostrom's theory. It's based on one of three propositions: (1) All civilizations at our current stage of technological development go extinct before they reach technological maturity; (2) There is a very strong convergence among all technological mature civilizations that they all lose interest in creating simulations of their ancestors; and (3) We are almost certainly living in a simulation.

What does Bostrom mean by "Technological Maturity"? In this context, it refers to where humankind has acquired most of the technological capabilities consistent with physical laws and material and energy constraints. This mature stage will enable civilizations to convert planets and other astronomical resources into enormously powerful computers.

The first proposition states that all civilizations at our current stage of technological development go extinct before they reach technological maturity. If this is true, it would mean that a civilization in the future or the past did indeed reach technological maturity. The second proposition suggests that there is a strong convergence among all technological mature civilizations that they lose interest in creating simulations of their ancestors. The third proposition, if one of the first two is false, would imply that we are almost certainly living in a simulation.

To illustrate this, Bostrom uses an analogy. Suppose that the simulated people are conscious and that the vast majority of minds like ours do not belong to the original race but rather to people simulated by advanced descendants of an original race. It could be argued that if this were the case, we would be rational to think that we are likely among the simulated minds rather than among the original biological ones.

Now, let's explore how likely it is that a technological mature civilization will use some computing power resources to produce an astronomical number of ancestors' simulations. Bostrom compares the estimate of the kind of computing power that a technological mature civilization would be able to master by converting planets into structures optimized for computing with the estimate of how much computing power is required to simulate one human brain and therefore all human brains that have ever existed.

The theory suggests that if you don't believe in the first two propositions, you will have to believe the third one is real, implying that we are most likely living in a computer simulation right now. To expand on this theory, Bostrom examines how likely it is that a technological mature civilization will use some computing power resources to produce an astronomical number of ancestors' simulations.

The estimate suggests that using 1% of the compute power available of one planetary size computer even just for one minute would enable you to create millions of runs of all of human history. This theory is based on Nick Bostrom's paper, which can be found in the description below.

What do you think about this simulation theory? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and don't forget to check out the video for more information on this fascinating topic.

"WEBVTTKind: captionsLanguage: enAre we living in a simulation?Would we even know if we were?I think most likely not.Today we are looking at Nick Bostrom's theoryof this mind bending topic.Many works of science fiction and forecastspredict that enormous amounts of computingpower will be available in the future.So Let us suppose for a moment that thesepredictions are correct.One thing that later generations might dowith their super-powerful computers is torun detailed simulations of their ancestorsor of people like their ancestors.Because their computers would be so powerful,they could run many such simulations.Suppose that these simulated people are conscious.Then it could be the case that the vast majorityof minds like ours do not belong to the originalrace but rather to people simulated by theadvanced descendants of an original race.It is then possible to argue that, if thiswere the case, we would be rational to thinkthat we are likely among the simulated mindsrather than among the original biologicalones.Therefore, if we don’t think that we arecurrently living in a computer simulation,we are not entitled to believe that we willhave descendants who will run lots of suchsimulations of their ancestors.Okey so i have tried to make like a graphicalexplanation of this.So if we start on top left we see the birthof a civilization was in Year 1.Then time goes on and they reach technologicalmaturity in year 14050.So then they can approach to the next levelwitch is starting to simulate all of the yearsand the people who have died and all of theirancestors prior to this year.So then we can have a look at the runtimeof the simulation.If they started from year 1, the birth ofthe civilization.Then they run this simulation all the wayup to year 14050 .I guess we would be like, if we are in a simulationnow i guess we would be like around here somewherein 2022.So, who knows..That is the basic idea of the theory, nowlet's dive a bit deeper in.The theory is based on that one of three propositionsis true.But first i just want to clarify what we meanby the term “Technological Maturity”Technological maturity in this theory meanswhere humankind has acquired most of the technologicalcapabilities that one can currently show tobe consistent with physical laws and withmaterial and energy constraints.Such a mature stage of technological developmentwill make it possible to convert planets andother astronomical resources into enormouslypowerful computers.Then let's have a look at the 3 propositions:1.All civilisations at our current stage oftechnological development go extinct beforethey reach technological maturity2.There is a very strong convergence among alltechnological mature civilizations that theyall lose interest in creating simulationsof their ancestors.Ancestors simulations is a very detailed computersimulation of people who used to live.So detailed that the simulations would beconscious.3.The last proposition is that we are almostcertainly living in a simulation.If the first proposition is false, that meansthat a civilization in the future or the pastdid reach technological maturity.And if the second proposition also is false,meaning that a fraction of the civilizationwho did reach technological maturity do usesome of the resources for the purpose of creatingancestors' simulations.Then we can mathematically show that the numberof people with our kind of experiences thatwould be living inside these ancestors' simulationswill be vastly greater than the number ofpeople that would be living in unmediatedoriginal history.As just a reference In 2022 it is estimatedthat 109 billion people from our civilizationhave existed, so if we do some quick mathwe end up with 94% percent of our civilizationhaving lived and died.So that means that the vast majority of peoplewill be simulated rather than non simulated.And on that condicion you are most likelyone of the simulated people, just based onprobability.There are more people that have lived anddied, then that have original histories.So the theory then is that if you don't believein the two first propositions, you will haveto believe the third one is real and thatyou are most likely living in a computer simulationright now.To expand a bit on this theory we will justtake a look at how likely it is that a technologicalmature civilization will use some computingpower resources to produce an astronomicalnumber of ancestors' simulations.This comes from comparisons between an estimateof the kind of computing power that a technologicalmature civilization would be able to masterby converting planets into structures optimizedfor computing.And on the other hand an estimate of how muchcomputing power that is required to simulateone human brain and therefore to simulateall human brains that have ever existed.Of course we don't have exact values for this,but we can set the lower bound on the amountof computing power a mature civilization wouldhave.And then we can estimate roughly the amountof computing power it would take to simulatethe whole of human history.And this estimate is that the amount of availablecomputing power and the required computingpower needed to simulate human history differby a vast number of orders of magnitude.Such that using 1% of the compute power availableof one planetary size computer even just forone minute would enable you to create millionsof runs of all of human history.So to sum this up.If we believe that one of the 3 propositionsis true, then the theory could support thatwe are in a simulation.So I hope you found this as mind bogglingas I do, it is a really interesting theoryto think about.If you want to read more, i have left a linkto Nick Bostrom paper in the description below.So what do you think of this simulation theory?Let me know in the comments below, and don'tforget to check out this video.See you in the next one.\n"