The Future as Predicted by David Gerald: A Look Back at his Accurate Forecasts

In 1999, science fiction author David Gerald made a series of predictions that were remarkably accurate, particularly when it came to smartphones and future technology. In his assessment, he predicted that all these devices - cell phone, pocket organizer, beeper, calculator, digital camera, pocket tape recorder, music player, television, radio receiver, and more - would eventually meld into one device. This device was expected to be smaller than a deck of cards, less than an inch thick, and determined by what's convenient to hold rather than the technology inside the box. Gerald also predicted that this device would have high-res color screens, microphones, plug for handsets and earphones, camera lenses, wireless connectivity, and cell phone and beeper functions. Furthermore, he foresaw a future where this device would have television and radio reception capabilities, digital recording capabilities, and even the ability to play music. Gerald's prediction hit a home run, proving that he had a unique understanding of the rapidly evolving tech landscape.

Gerald's predictions didn't stop there. He also made statements about robots and artificial intelligence (AI). According to Gerald, true AI is unlikely to be achieved in the near future, but robots will soon possess capabilities beyond what any human assistant can do. Robots will become "dance partners" and engage in various tasks such as playing basketball, jogging, walking dogs, and even delivering the mail. These robots will assist in the care of the sick and elderly, performing tasks that require a high level of data gathering, pattern recognition, information processing, and decision-making. Gerald envisioned robots that can connect with all wireless devices, monitor TV shows viewers want to watch, order pizza toppings, pay bills, and even manage finances. At this point, the robot will become a life manager, with tasks ranging from cleaning houses to managing one's personal life.

However, Gerald cautioned that true artificial intelligence is unlikely to be achieved in the near future, and warned against giving up on being human. He emphasized that humans possess an essential quality - the ability to connect with each other - which is lacking in machines. The development of robots will likely take at least another decade, if not longer, as it requires a deliberate pace of development to ensure accuracy and safety.

It's worth noting that Gerald predicted several technologies that have become a reality much more recently than expected. Google Translate, the Google assistant, the idea of walking around with one's phone automatically making recommendations for restaurants or reservations - all these predictions made by David Gerald in 1999 have come to fruition.

A New Era of Technology?

The recent passing of David Gerald is a poignant reminder that predicting the future can be challenging, even for those with a keen understanding of technology. Gerald's legacy serves as a testament to the power of vision and innovation. In our current era of rapid technological advancements, it's essential to think about what the next big shift will be - something that will change the way we behave and interact with technology.

For some, the answer might lie in earpieces or contact lenses connected via the internet, while for others, it may be a completely different concept altogether. One thing is certain, however: whatever the next major breakthrough is, it will likely be a game-changer that transforms our lives and relationships with technology.

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"WEBVTTKind: captionsLanguage: enwell predicting a tech future has got to be one of the funnest things to do now it's the best thing to do first off let's just talk about how hard this is to predict accurately I mean even when the internet first came out people were very confused and had a hard time understanding what the internet was Allison can you explain what internet is what do you write like mail see what I mean we usually don't understand the scope of the chains that's about to happen we don't have a frame of reference we don't have a context so we usually miss the most important points having said that someone was fantastically accurate in predicting the future when it came to smartphones meets science fiction author David Gerald and in 1999 he said this I've got a cell phone a pocket organizer a beeper a calculator a digital camera a pocket tape recorder a music player sometime in the next few years all of those devices are going to meld into one it will be a box less than inch thick and smaller than a deck of cards this size will be determined by what's convenient to hold not by the technology inside the box will have a high-res color screen a microphone a plug for handsets and earphones a camera lens wireless connectivity cell phone and beeper functions a television and radio receiver a digital recorder etc etc etc etc etc you get the point the man hit a home run a grand slam you might think in retrospect that that was easy to do of course we could have figured that out but many many people were way off and did not see that coming now he's also predicted the future from now what do you think he said well Gerald has obliged us by releasing some thoughts on robots and predictions for AI noting he feels it is inevitable sensibly Gerald points out that true AI isn't possible in the near future but robots will soon possess capabilities beyond what any human assistant can do the robot will require a level of data gathering pattern recognition information processing and decision-making that will surpass that of a human assistant robots will become dance partners they will play basketball they will pace joggers they will walk dogs they will take on any task that can be defined by a specific set of rules robots will assist in the care of the sick and elderly they may even end up delivering the mail Jerald goes on to say that at that point the robot becomes a life manager cleaning house will be the least of its responsibilities the robot will connect with all of your wireless devices and monitor what TV shows you want to watch what toppings you want on your pizza order what bills you need to pay and so on it will likely manage your finances as well so that filing out your tax returns will be as simple as saying Robi file my tax return now as for true artificial intelligence Gerald says this the development of true robots will likely take at least another decade probably longer the process will be slow and painstaking the development of the self-driving car is a good example of the kind of caution necessary and that deliberate pace of development will give humans plenty of time to get used to the idea but Gerald does end with a warning quote here's the singular caution we must not give up the most essential part of being human the ability to connect with each other yes a robot can rock a baby but I'm pretty sure the baby would much prefer to be rocked by a human if we give that up we create a generation that will never know what it is to be loved I should add that Gerald actually predicted more than just what I read he predicted Google Translate the Google assistant the whole idea of being able to walk around and your phone would automatically make recommendations for different restaurants or even make reservations for you that's happening now and that's relatively recent the fact that he predicted that 20 years ago is impressive indeed now it's sad to say that mr. Gerald just passed away a couple of weeks ago and I thought this was an appropriate time to bring up the subject because who doesn't love to talk about tech future but this is really hard to do and you guys know that I have talked about it a lot where I think the next big shift and I don't mean like an incremental shift or a new gadget I'm talking about a new technology shift that really changes the way we behave like the internet the smartphone you know the personal computer all that kind of stuff and I really think it has to be a technology or an ability that opens up the internet for us so instead of being locked into all this communication devices through these tiny little screens it needs to be something that opens us up whether that is an earpiece in conjunction with you know contact lens that's all IP connected I don't know but again I'm using my internet frame of reference so it may be something just completely wildly different and someone 20 years from now will be looking back in this video and go yeah that guy had no clue what he was talking about if you think you know what you're talking about let me know in the comments below or on Twitter I'm active on Twitter I read pretty much everything and respond to many of you and I still read all the comments talk to you later like me do you like ultra-thin phone cases if so you just need protection against everyday wear and tear and our sponsor has super-thin cases price just right for all major phones you can go to minimal case comm use our coupon code AAA 20 and get 20% off an already sweet deal laughs Wowwell predicting a tech future has got to be one of the funnest things to do now it's the best thing to do first off let's just talk about how hard this is to predict accurately I mean even when the internet first came out people were very confused and had a hard time understanding what the internet was Allison can you explain what internet is what do you write like mail see what I mean we usually don't understand the scope of the chains that's about to happen we don't have a frame of reference we don't have a context so we usually miss the most important points having said that someone was fantastically accurate in predicting the future when it came to smartphones meets science fiction author David Gerald and in 1999 he said this I've got a cell phone a pocket organizer a beeper a calculator a digital camera a pocket tape recorder a music player sometime in the next few years all of those devices are going to meld into one it will be a box less than inch thick and smaller than a deck of cards this size will be determined by what's convenient to hold not by the technology inside the box will have a high-res color screen a microphone a plug for handsets and earphones a camera lens wireless connectivity cell phone and beeper functions a television and radio receiver a digital recorder etc etc etc etc etc you get the point the man hit a home run a grand slam you might think in retrospect that that was easy to do of course we could have figured that out but many many people were way off and did not see that coming now he's also predicted the future from now what do you think he said well Gerald has obliged us by releasing some thoughts on robots and predictions for AI noting he feels it is inevitable sensibly Gerald points out that true AI isn't possible in the near future but robots will soon possess capabilities beyond what any human assistant can do the robot will require a level of data gathering pattern recognition information processing and decision-making that will surpass that of a human assistant robots will become dance partners they will play basketball they will pace joggers they will walk dogs they will take on any task that can be defined by a specific set of rules robots will assist in the care of the sick and elderly they may even end up delivering the mail Jerald goes on to say that at that point the robot becomes a life manager cleaning house will be the least of its responsibilities the robot will connect with all of your wireless devices and monitor what TV shows you want to watch what toppings you want on your pizza order what bills you need to pay and so on it will likely manage your finances as well so that filing out your tax returns will be as simple as saying Robi file my tax return now as for true artificial intelligence Gerald says this the development of true robots will likely take at least another decade probably longer the process will be slow and painstaking the development of the self-driving car is a good example of the kind of caution necessary and that deliberate pace of development will give humans plenty of time to get used to the idea but Gerald does end with a warning quote here's the singular caution we must not give up the most essential part of being human the ability to connect with each other yes a robot can rock a baby but I'm pretty sure the baby would much prefer to be rocked by a human if we give that up we create a generation that will never know what it is to be loved I should add that Gerald actually predicted more than just what I read he predicted Google Translate the Google assistant the whole idea of being able to walk around and your phone would automatically make recommendations for different restaurants or even make reservations for you that's happening now and that's relatively recent the fact that he predicted that 20 years ago is impressive indeed now it's sad to say that mr. Gerald just passed away a couple of weeks ago and I thought this was an appropriate time to bring up the subject because who doesn't love to talk about tech future but this is really hard to do and you guys know that I have talked about it a lot where I think the next big shift and I don't mean like an incremental shift or a new gadget I'm talking about a new technology shift that really changes the way we behave like the internet the smartphone you know the personal computer all that kind of stuff and I really think it has to be a technology or an ability that opens up the internet for us so instead of being locked into all this communication devices through these tiny little screens it needs to be something that opens us up whether that is an earpiece in conjunction with you know contact lens that's all IP connected I don't know but again I'm using my internet frame of reference so it may be something just completely wildly different and someone 20 years from now will be looking back in this video and go yeah that guy had no clue what he was talking about if you think you know what you're talking about let me know in the comments below or on Twitter I'm active on Twitter I read pretty much everything and respond to many of you and I still read all the comments talk to you later like me do you like ultra-thin phone cases if so you just need protection against everyday wear and tear and our sponsor has super-thin cases price just right for all major phones you can go to minimal case comm use our coupon code AAA 20 and get 20% off an already sweet deal laughs Wow\n"